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"0xe4a3bf1ec0e4a75315565ae6b80d5b36d06a792f4aedc9c0cc6c634effec29f9", "plpCarry": 0.000055, "carryBps": 0.012, "navAfterClose": 45.920956 }, { "at": "2026-06-16T07:18:32.733Z", "tx": "GxuSSgyqpULsaeRdVUKSiXgAiibSkV3ywnYAKU7a5Kj7", "oracleId": "0x8076048a02259d6e6eeead4fb36947018bf27282cf70b1146be95d1c5efd891a", "plpCarry": 0.0005, "carryBps": 0.1089, "navAfterClose": 45.90197 }, { "at": "2026-06-16T09:19:48.307Z", "tx": "G9uGq4wJyYhpaRaqCwrpouPToaLkiaezmF9VhcUdYdwf", "oracleId": "0xed2f4983632a24371e085a77ec94d92b7062844b6118c70152ba84bd39b76f54", "plpCarry": -0.001767, "carryBps": -0.385, "navAfterClose": 45.880603 }, { "at": "2026-06-16T11:43:46.891Z", "tx": "9SqzbeV1DF8a2WkGuB5hCSEex8JH5RRxj31BgzgCxYmj", "oracleId": "0x1c40f01bf783bfbaba3d802abb82631ab1f830c6d8318af58ce9774b40c4832c", "plpCarry": -0.000397, "carryBps": -0.0865, "navAfterClose": 45.865829 }, { "at": "2026-06-16T14:48:17.492Z", "tx": "CKSU7kyZGBUciKDGZRZTQEYDpjd1RBxMhfEGU3g3SXTb", "oracleId": "0x4e648ccd38731a00d0ea6af6c439e4f54329ff79e2c108e59570d904826c3141", "plpCarry": 0.000519, "carryBps": 0.1132, "navAfterClose": 45.853012 }, { "at": "2026-06-16T20:58:44.898Z", "tx": "7BMf6f5JJJX8af9jMSXSxHpx85syehNcKPMqkyPmvLie", "oracleId": "0xe75fd5555298a427270f878c2ee5c95d640819ab336e5eb3291356ae1863610b", "plpCarry": -0.012448, "carryBps": -2.7148, "navAfterClose": 45.825827 }, { "at": "2026-06-16T22:18:29.358Z", "tx": "F8JWpEsHZJP8RNpPjEFBqBedKgiFXUsKb8AZL8zm1XBB", "oracleId": "0xacbd32a2e9a6dcf86c4f18c76054740dec279d592de502b4d935ab0b8baa0b72", "plpCarry": -0.00066, "carryBps": -0.144, "navAfterClose": 45.813401 } ], "plpCarryNote": "PLP carry is derived from committed close receipts: navAfterClose minus prior NAV, plus realized hedge cost, minus any binary payout." }, "methodology": [ "Sort settled BTC oracle captures by expiry and replay non-overlapping vault cycles.", "From each simulated open time, choose the next settled oracle whose expiry is at least 75 minutes away, mirroring the keeper's minimum-horizon rule.", "Use the settlement price of the latest oracle whose expiry is at or before the simulated oracle activation as the spot-at-open proxy.", "Snap the downside strike to 99% of that spot proxy, rounded down to the oracle strike grid.", "Anchor premium to the median signed live fill ask (1.6959% of notional) from keeper/data/vault_fills.ndjson under the same 99% strike policy; near-expiry SVI is not used to price simulated opens.", "Set quantity equal to the 2.5% hedge budget, matching the live keeper policy; an in-the-money cycle pays true notional when settlement is below strike.", "Effective cycle spacing is 105.9 minutes across 751 simulated cycles, after applying the 75-minute minimum horizon over this captured oracle grid.", "Run PLP carry as a live-observed band from committed close receipts only; if no closes exist, no positive carry is assumed." ], "limitations": [ "The spot proxy can be up to about 15 minutes stale, and can be much staler across gaps in the local capture, which can bias strikes versus true open spot.", "Premium anchoring assumes the committed live fill ask persists across regimes; the calibration tightens as more cron receipts land.", "Near-expiry SVI parameters are kept in the receipt table for transparency but are not used to price simulated at-open premia.", "PLP carry is not invented from historical pool yield. It is derived only from committed close receipts; if close receipts are unavailable, no positive carry is assumed.", "The unhedged baseline carries the same downside event loss that the hedge is sized to offset, so the drawdown comparison is a stress proxy, not a PLP-only performance finding.", "This is a testnet indexer-history simulation, not a forward promise or APY projection." ] }