Treasury-readableRisk-defined

Budgeted hedge spend, priced on the live surface, and proven onchain, so a committee signs on evidence rather than a pitch.

Risk framework

A note is only usefulif risk is legible.

A note is only useful if the committee can explain it. CapletFi separates pricing, budget enforcement, settlement, and disclosures so a treasury reviewer can see what was proven and what remains outside the enforcement boundary.

Open the live vault Browse receipts

Priced

0.191160 fair

The note records the SVI fair value and the executable DeepBook Predict ask at mint.

Budgeted

passed

The treasury declares a hedge budget before signing; V3 rejects overspend onchain.

Receipted

Sui + Walrus

Settlement preserves holder, settler, payout route, manager credit, and Walrus summaries.

Review checklist

What a reviewer checks before trusting the note.

Check the surface

SVI fair 0.191160, ask 0.199039, spread +412 bps.

Check the budget

Declared 0.100000 DUSDC, realized delta -84 bps.

Check settlement

Non-holder settlement is permitted; payout still routes to the holder.

Check receipts

Sui digests and Walrus blobs are linked from the proof stack and API proof JSON.

Boundaries

The honest disclosures stay visible.

Not mainnet yield

DeepBook Predict is testnet-only for this submission. Mainnet requires a new proof once the primitive supports it.

Not a guaranteed loss bound

The scenario sheet is a disclosed planning surface, not a promise that losses cannot exceed a number.

Not a formal audit

The repo carries security notes and verifier scripts, but the contracts are not a completed third-party audit.

Not custody abstraction

Holder-owned PredictManager withdrawal remains explicit so the custody boundary is visible.

Execution path

Every risk claim maps to a DeepBook call.

The UI does not price off-chain and ask the user to trust it. The vault reads Predict's quote, mints the hedge, supplies PLP, redeems after settlement, and withdraws realized value.

Quote

predict::get_trade_amounts

Hedge

predict::mint

Carry

predict::supply

Redeem

predict::redeem_permissionless

Withdraw

predict::withdraw

Tail crash stress (forward illustration)

Why the hedge exists: a sharp selloff.

The simulation replay shows calm markets, where the hedge looks like a small cost. This is the other half: a 5% per cycle tail selloff over 12 cycles. The unhedged vault takes the full drop; the hedged vault's downside binary pays its fixed notional, the 2.5% hedge budget, each cycle, capped at the loss, so the vault eats only the residual. This is a forward illustration with disclosed assumptions, not a backtest.

Unhedged drawdown: -46%
Hedged drawdown: -27%
Drawdown shielded: 19 points

Assumptions: 5% per cycle drop over 12 cycles, 2.5% hedge budget, the binary pays its notional capped at the loss, premium expensed each cycle. The hedge halves the crash bleed, it does not eliminate loss. Green is hedged, red is unhedged.